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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
 
KYLE CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND A BANDING EYE FEATURE
IS DEVELOPING. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD TO THE NORTH AND
EAST...BUT IS RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE EXCEPT RIGHT OVER THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5...OR 55 KT...FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 230/05.  KYLE IS HAS BEEN MOVING
SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN THAT SAME GENERAL
DIRECTION SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA.
THERE REMAINS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC TRACK MODELS
ON TAKING KYLE TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN
TURNING THE CYCLONE MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR WEST AFTER
THAT. BY 72 HOURS...KYLE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STALL AS A NARROW RIDGE BUILDS BETWEEN THE CYCLONE AND
TROPCIAL CYCLONE LILI LOCATED WELL TO ITS SOUTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL
TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE
OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
WEAK STEERING FLOW...SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE FORWARD SPEED MAY
OCCUR.
 
CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND TOPS
HAVE COOLED TO -60C JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS AND KYLE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER SSTS. GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE INNER-CORE
STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE...KYLE COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. BY 48 HOURS...HOWEVER...INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE CYCLONE AND CAUSE KYLE
TO START WEAKENING.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/2100Z 30.1N  51.4W    55 KTS
12HR VT     25/0600Z 29.4N  52.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     25/1800Z 28.7N  54.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     26/0600Z 28.3N  55.1W    70 KTS
48HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  56.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     27/1800Z 27.5N  56.5W    60 KTS
 
 
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