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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 215/07.  THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  KYLE IS 
FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST 
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP 
KYLE MOVING IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AND 
THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER THAT AND SLOW IN 
FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE AMONG ALL OF THE NHC 
MODELS ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO 
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE AVN/GFS MODEL.
 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER 
AND BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE TRYING TO FORM. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS AND KYLE WILL 
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER...AS HIGH AS 28.5C. THEREFORE... 
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY AS EARLY AS 
TOMORROW.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 30.3N  51.1W    45 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 29.6N  52.1W    55 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 28.6N  53.8W    60 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 27.9N  55.4W    65 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 27.5N  56.6W    65 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 27.0N  57.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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