ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 215/07. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. KYLE IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP
KYLE MOVING IN A GENERAL SOUTHWEST DIRECTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AND
THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AFTER THAT AND SLOW IN
FORWARD SPEED. THERE IS EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE AMONG ALL OF THE NHC
MODELS ON THIS GENERAL TRACK...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE AVN/GFS MODEL.
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
AND BANDING EYE FEATURE MAY BE TRYING TO FORM. THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH 36 HOURS AND KYLE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER...AS HIGH AS 28.5C. THEREFORE...
THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY AS EARLY AS
TOMORROW.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 24/1500Z 30.3N 51.1W 45 KTS
12HR VT 25/0000Z 29.6N 52.1W 55 KTS
24HR VT 25/1200Z 28.6N 53.8W 60 KTS
36HR VT 26/0000Z 27.9N 55.4W 65 KTS
48HR VT 26/1200Z 27.5N 56.6W 65 KTS
72HR VT 27/1200Z 27.0N 57.5W 65 KTS
NNNN
Webmaster