HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 23 2002
 
THE EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER HAS PERSISTED. THE DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE 
REMAINS AT T2.5...OR 35 KT...FROM THE THREE SATELLITE AGENCIES. 
HOWEVER...AN AMSU INTENSITY 23/1626Z INDICATED A PRESSURE OF 979.1 
MB. WHILE THE PRESSURE IS PROBABLY TOO LOW...THE ANALYSIS DID 
INDICATE A GOOD WARM CORE ALOFT THAT WAS CONTINUING TO GET WARMER. 
THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BUMPED UP A LITTLE TO 40 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 210/05...BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION 
THAT KYLE WILL START A SOUTHWEST MOTION WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS. 
KYLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON THE EAST SIDE OF A NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST 
ORIENTED MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA...WHICH SHOULD KEEP 
KYLE ON A SLOW SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE 
PERIOD. THERE IS EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AMONG ALL OF THE NHC MODELS ON 
THIS GENERAL MOTION...AND THE INITIAL FORECAST WAS ONLY SHIFTED 
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OR WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.
 
SLOW STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  THE
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR  
STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS. AFTER 
THAT...UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 20 KT.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 31.8N  49.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 31.3N  50.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 29.6N  52.4W    45 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 28.9N  53.3W    50 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 28.1N  54.8W    55 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 28.0N  56.0W    60 KTS
 
 
NNNN