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TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2002
 
LATEST SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT KYLE IS NOW
DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW THE PUSH FROM THE ANTICYCLONE LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM.  ALL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN CONTINUING THIS
GENERAL MOTION FOR ABOUT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS MOVED
SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE GFS.

A BURST OF CONVECTION HAS OCCURRED ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB REMAIN AT 2.5...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 35 KTS.  SOME NORTHERLY VERTICAL
SHEAR APPEARS TO BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM AT THIS TIME.  THE SHIPS
AND GFDL BOTH STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM WITH TIME AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE...BUT NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BECAUSE OF THE SHEAR.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 32.9N  49.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 32.4N  50.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 31.7N  51.2W    35 KTS
36HR VT     24/1800Z 30.8N  52.6W    40 KTS
48HR VT     25/0600Z 30.0N  54.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     26/0600Z 29.0N  56.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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