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SUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002
 
KYLES STRUCTURE HAS BEEN IN A STATUS QUO FOR THE PAST 12 TO 18
HOURS.  A RECENT SSMI PASS SHOWED THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS
PARTLY EXPOSED ON THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND
THAT THE WIND FIELD IS STILL BROAD WITH A LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM
WINDS.  ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS STILL PRESENT...MOST NOTABLY OVER
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED
ON SUBTROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-40 KT FROM TAFB...AND A
TROPICAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KT FROM SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/2.  THE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN AND ITS
MOTION SHOULD BECOME MORE ERRATIC...INCLUDING POSSIBLE LOOPS...OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS HAVE BEEN
FORECASTING THIS AND THEY ALSO FORECAST AN EVENTUAL TRACK TOWARD THE
WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO 
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

ALSO...THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST PHILOSOPHY
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  KYLE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE LIGHT
SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER 26-27C SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...AND THUS
STEADY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THE STORM COULD BECOME FULLY
TROPICAL SOMETIME TOMORROW.  THERE REMAINS ONE POSSIBLE NEGATIVE
FACTOR...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY PERSIST NEAR THE STORM.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT THIS WILL
ONLY SLOW THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT AND NOT STOP IT.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 32.0N  51.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 32.4N  51.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 32.3N  50.9W    50 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 32.0N  51.4W    55 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 31.6N  52.3W    60 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 31.1N  53.7W    70 KTS
 
 
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