HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
SUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS CONTINUED TO GET
BETTER ORGANIZED.  DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED EAST OF THE CENTER
AND SUBTROPICAL CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB.  THEREFORE...THE SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
SUBTROPICAL STORM KYLE.  AN OBSERVATION FROM THE SHIP PGUP LOCATED
JUST EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION INDICATED 30 KT WINDS.  IT IS
THEREFORE ASSUMED THAT 35 KT WINDS ARE OCCURRING IN THE CONVECTION
EAST OF THE CENTER.

IT APPEARS THAT THE CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO SLOW DOWN AS TRACK 
GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/8 KT.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CYCLONE WILL NEARLY COME TO A HALT IN ABOUT 
12 TO 18 HOURS.  A SHORTWAVE NORTH OF KYLE IS EXPECTED TO BY-PASS 
THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING...LEAVING IT IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW 
BETWEEN TWO 500 MB ANTICYCLONES...ONE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THE OTHER 
TO THE NORTHWEST.  BEYOND 36 HOURS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH 
STRENGTHENS AND MOVES EAST ALLOWING THE CYCLONE TO BEGIN A SLOW WEST 
TO SOUTHWEST MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH AND IS A LITTLE 
SLOWER.

SINCE THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED CLOSER TO THE CENTER IT APPEARS 
THAT CYCLONE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF A TRANSITION TO A 
TROPICAL SYSTEM. SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THAT KYLE WILL 
REMAIN IN A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 26 TO 27 C WATERS. 
THEREFORE THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN 72 HOURS.

FORECASTER JARVINEN/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 30.8N  51.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 31.8N  51.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 32.7N  51.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 33.0N  51.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 32.7N  52.2W    60 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 31.8N  53.5W    65 KTS
 
 
NNNN