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TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
ANOTHER SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...SO THE
CYCLONE IS MAINTAINED AT MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM THE VARIOUS SATELLITE AGENCIES
RANGE FROM 25 TO 30 KT...BUT THE DATA T-NUMBERS RANGE FROM 35 TO 40
KT. GIVEN THAT JOSEPHINE IS NOW ACCELERATING AT MORE THAN 20 KT...
THE ADDITION OF THE STORM MOTION IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WOULD
ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE KEPT AS A TROPICAL STORM
RATHER THAN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 040/23. JOSEPHINE HAS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS
FEW ADVISORIES. JOSEPHINE IS NOW ACCELERATING TO NORTHEAST AHEAD OF
AN EASTWARD-MOVING FRONTAL TROUGH LOCATED ABOUT 200 NMI TO THE WEST
OF THE CYCLONE. ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE STRONGLY CONVERGENT
ABOUT A NORTHEAST TRACK WITH CONTINUED ACCELERATION FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS UNTIL MERGER WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OCCURS. THEREFORE...THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
JOSEPHINE IS APPROACHING A SHARP SST GRADIENT JUST NORTH OF 40N
LATITUDE. WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATER
AHEAD...THE PRESENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND/OR
DISSIPATE IN 6 TO 12 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME ABSORBED BY
A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS MENTIONED IN
PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...NO SIGNIFICANT BAROCLINIC DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED AFTER MERGER OCCURS.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 19/0300Z 39.0N 47.9W 35 KTS
12HR VT 19/1200Z 41.8N 45.0W 30 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 20/0000Z 46.3N 40.6W 25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
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