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TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
 
A SMALL BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRED OVER THE CENTER...SO THE
SYSTEM IS MAINTAINED AT TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY ON THIS ADVISORY.
JOSEPHINE IS APPROACHING COOLER WATERS HOWEVER...AND WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE DOES NOT
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WILL STRENGTHEN IN A BAROCLINIC
FASHION...BUT SIMPLY BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AND ITS ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC ZONE WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS.

THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE AND IS NOW MOVING ABOUT 035/16.
THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JOSEPHINE SHOULD ACCELERATE ON A NORTHEAST TO
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD HEADING BY THE FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY
IS JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL ENSEMBLE MEAN TRACK.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/2100Z 37.2N  49.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     19/0600Z 40.0N  47.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     19/1800Z 44.0N  43.0W    25 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     20/0600Z 49.0N  38.0W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     20/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
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