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TROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 18 2002

FORECASTER PASCH
 
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW CLOUD CENTER.   
ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS QUITE LIMITED...IT IS 
PRESUMED THAT THERE ARE STILL WINDS OF MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
ON THE STRONGER GRADIENT SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.  JOSEPHINE IS 
APPROACHING COOLER WATERS AND IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN.  THE SYSTEM 
SHOULD BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN A DAY OR SO.  AS NOTED 
EARLIER...LARGE-SCALE MODELS DO NOT SUGGEST ANY BAROCLINIC 
RE-INTENSIFICATION...BUT INDICATE THAT JOSEPHINE WILL BECOME 
ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

INITIAL MOTION IS 030/10.  A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT...WITH
ACCELERATION...IS FORECAST AS JOSEPHINE IS CARRIED BY THE FLOW ON
THE EAST SIDE OF A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH.  THIS TRACK FORECAST IS
ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/1500Z 36.0N  51.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     19/0000Z 38.0N  49.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     19/1200Z 41.0N  45.0W    25 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     20/0000Z 45.0N  39.0W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     20/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
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