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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002

SATELLITE IMAGES TODAY INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 700 
MILES EAST OF BERMUDA A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LOW-CLOUD 
CIRCULATION...WITH ENOUGH DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE.  THE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND WILL 
BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO.  SINCE THE ENVIRONMENT 
DOES NOT LOOK TO FAVORABLE...NO STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.  THE 
CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MERGING WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW 
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

AFTER MEANDERING OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS OR SO...THE CYCLONE IS NOW 
MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD.  IT SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE 
NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH 
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 33.5N  52.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 35.0N  52.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     18/1800Z 37.0N  50.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     19/0600Z 39.0N  47.5W    30 KTS
48HR VT     19/1800Z 42.0N  43.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     20/1800Z 47.0N  32.0W    30 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
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