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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  43
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 26 2002
 
SURFACE OBSERVATION INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ISIDORE
IS NOW 988 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT.  THUS...THE
SYSTEM IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  CONTINUED WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED FROM 24 HR AS ISIDORE MERGES WITH AN ONCOMING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.  SOME RE-INTENSIFICATION AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AFTER THE MERGER.
 
ISIDORE ACCELERATED AND JOGGED TO THE LEFT WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE
OF THE INITIAL MOTION 005/22.  ISIDORE REMAINS BETWEEN A 
MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA AND THE WESTERLIES OVER THE 
CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE 
STORM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE FURTHER
DURING THE NEXT 48 HR AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERLIES...AND DESPITE THE 
LEFTWARD JOG THERE IS STILL NO OBVIOUS REASON TO DISAGREE WITH THESE 
FORECASTS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SLIGHTLY LEFT
OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 
 
THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON ISIDORE BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER.  FUTURE INFORMATION WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
IN WASHINGTON DC.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/2100Z 33.3N  89.7W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/0600Z 35.5N  88.2W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     27/1800Z 40.4N  83.3W    25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     28/0600Z 44.3N  73.4W    35 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     28/1800Z 48.0N  62.0W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     29/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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