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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  41
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 26 2002
 
LARGE ISIDORE MADE LANDFALL ON THE LOUISIANA COAST JUST TO THE WEST
OF GRAND ISLE AS A 55-KNOT TROPICAL STORM.  AS IT HAS BEEN OBSERVED
IN PREVIOUS TROPICAL CYCLONES...JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL...THE CLOUD
PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGES BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED...LOOKING VERY
TROPICAL...WITH VERY STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER.  IT APPEARS
THAT ISIDORE WAS IN ITS WAY TO BECOME A HURRICANE ONCE AGAIN BUT IT
RAN OUT OF FUEL.  NOW THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND A GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED.  THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.  BECAUSE
THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE...THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY LINGER
FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA.
 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS INCREASED IN FORWARD SPEED AND IS NOW
MOVING NORTHWARD ABOUT 14 KNOTS. ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE SOUTWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL
TAKE THE WEAKENING TROPICAL CYCLONE WITH INCREASING FORWARD SPEED
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES UNTIL IT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
FRONTAL ZONE.
 
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 29.7N  90.4W    55 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 32.2N  89.8W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     27/0600Z 35.5N  87.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     27/1800Z 39.0N  84.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     28/0600Z 44.0N  76.5W    35 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     29/0600Z...ABSORBED
 
 
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