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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002

ISIDORE CONTINUES AS A VERY BROAD STORM...WITH A LARGE RADIUS OF 
MAXIMUM WINDS ...NEAR 90 N MI.  SURFACE DATA AND WIND ANALYSES FROM 
THE HURRICANE RESEARCH DIVISION SHOW A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT WINDS 
AROUND THE CENTER...WITH A VERY LARGE EXTENT OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE 
WINDS OVER THE GULF.  WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE HAVE REACHED THE 
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COAST AND WILL SOON BE SPREADING OVER THE 
MISSISSIPPI COAST AND OTHER PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING 
AREA.  SINCE THE CYCLONE HAS A LARGE RADIUS OF STRONGEST WINDS...THE 
PEAK STORM SURGE IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW WELL 
EAST OF THE CENTER.  THE OTHER BIG THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH ISIDORE IS 
PRECIPITATION AND FRESHWATER FLOODING.  NEARLY A FOOT OF RAIN HAS 
ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AT NEW ORLEANS.  THESE COPIOUS RAINS WILL 
SPREAD NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MOTION CONTINUES MAINLY NORTHWARD...010/11.  THIS OFFICIAL 
FORECAST TRACK IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.  THE CYCLONE 
IS BEING STEERED BY THE FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE.  AFTER LANDFALL...ISIDORE SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE 
NORTHEAST AND ACCELERATE AS IT GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES.

THERE HAVE BEEN CONTINUED BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST NORTH OF
THE CENTER...BUT OVERALL THE SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME MUCH BETTER
ORGANIZED.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIGHT OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT A DRY AIR
INTRUSION AT MID/UPPER LEVELS CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE CYCLONE.  THERE IS NOT MUCH TIME REMAINING FOR
STRENGTHENING UNTIL THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 28.1N  90.3W    55 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 29.7N  89.8W    60 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     27/0000Z 33.2N  88.8W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     27/1200Z 37.0N  86.0W    25 KTS...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     28/0000Z 41.5N  78.0W    25 KTS...INLAND...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     29/0000Z 51.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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