HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 25 2002
 
ISIDORE HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE DURING THE PAST 6 HR...
WITH A BAND OF CONVECTION LOOSELY WRAPPING AROUND THE BROAD AND
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  ONE NOTABLE ASPECT IS THE CONVECTIVE 
BURST CURRENTLY GOING OFF TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INDICATE THAT
WHILE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NOW 989 MB...THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM 
WINDS REMAINS ON THE ORDER OF 100 N MI.  A SHIP LOCATED WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER REPORTED 56 KT GUSTING TO 71 KT...AND HAS 
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF 55 KT SUSTAINED WINDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS.  THIS IS THE BASIS FOR INCREASING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
TO 55 KT.

ISIDORE HAS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS
AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 345/10.  OTHER THAN THAT...THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OR FORECAST TRACK REASONING.
ISIDORE IS LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND 
BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  AFTER MOVING
GENERALLY NORTHWARD TO LOUISIANA THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHEASTWARD
AND ACCELERATE AFTER 24 HR AS IT ENTERS THE WESTERLIES.  NHC TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND SO IS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS 
PACKAGE NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE LEFT DURING THE FIRST 24 HR.
 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST
SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND DRY AIR MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  THIS SHOULD AT LEAST LIMIT 
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...SINCE THE SYSTEM LOOKS
BETTER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO AND SHOWS INDICATIONS OF CONVECTION
WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CONTINUE
TO CALL FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL.  THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT ISIDORE COULD REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL.  AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN AND BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL BY 48 HR...FOLLOWED BY RE-DEVELOPMENT AS AN 
EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/2100Z 26.8N  90.5W    55 KTS
12HR VT     26/0600Z 28.3N  90.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     26/1800Z 30.5N  90.2W    40 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     27/0600Z 35.2N  87.9W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     27/1800Z 39.3N  82.2W    25 KTS...INLAND EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     28/1800Z 49.0N  58.9W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN