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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  33
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 24 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM MERIDA MEXICO 
INDICATE THAT THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF ISIDORE IS ABOUT TO MOVE 
BACK OVER WATER...JUST NORTH OF THAT SITE.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE 
CHECKING THE AREA OVER WATER AROUND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MEASURED 
5000-FOOT FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS OF 76 KNOTS TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST 
OF THE CENTER AND A DROPSONDE MEASURED 44 KNOTS AT THE SURFACE. 
THEREFORE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO 45 KNOTS IN THIS 
ADVISORY.  ISIDORE HAS A VERY LARGE CIRCULATION AND BECAUSE THE 
CYCLONE LACKS AN INNER CORE...THE STRONG WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM 
THE CENTER. BOTH...THE LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT AND OCEANIC 
CONDITIONS ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR RESTRENGHTENING. HOWEVER...IT IS 
NOT KNOWN HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE INNER 
CORE TO RECOVER FROM ALL THE TIME THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN OVER LAND.  
PAST EXPERIENCE WITH OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES SUGGESTS THAT IT WOULD 
TAKE ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS INDICATED BUT IT 
IS HIGHLY UNLIKELY THAT ISIDORE REGAINS ITS FORMER INTENSITY.    

AS GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST...A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS DEVELOPING OVER 
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS BEGINING TO STEER ISODORE TOWARD THE 
NORTHWEST ABOUT 6 KNOTS. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND 
NORTH AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN 
FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE NEARING 
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXCICO WILL 
PROBABLY BE ISSUED LATER THIS MORNING.

 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 21.3N  89.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 22.1N  90.2W    55 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 24.0N  91.0W    65 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 26.2N  91.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 28.5N  91.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 33.0N  89.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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