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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON SEP 23 2002

MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSIDERABLE DECREASE IN THE
CORE CONVECTION OF ISIDORE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS....WITH
THE STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW IN BANDS WELL REMOVED TO THE SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.  EARLIER DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT THE INNER CORE WINDS HAVE COLLAPSED...WITH
THE STRONGEST WINDS MOVING AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE REDUCED TO 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

ISIDORE WAS MOVING 180/5...BUT RECENT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT MOTION HAS CHANGED TO AN EASTWARD DRIFT...POSSIBLY AS PART
OF A LOOP.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH TEXAS ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES.  THIS...COMBINED WITH INCREASING RIDGING FORECAST BY THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS TO THE EAST OF ISIDORE...SHOULD TURN THE CYCLONE
NORTHWESTWARD IN 12-24 HR AND NORTHWARD BY 72 HR.  TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN INCREASING AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH THE GREATEST
DIFFERENCES COMING IN SPEED.  THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST...CALLING
FOR LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IN 72 HR.  GIVEN THE
LACK OF STRONG TROUGHING WEST OF ISIDORE...THIS APPEARS TO BE TOO
FAST.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL BE SLOWER...SIMILAR TO BUT
MOVED SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
INITIAL POSITION.
 
ISIDORE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN WHILE OVER LAND.  AFTER THAT...
UPPER-LEVEL AND SEA SURFACE CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
RE-INTENSIFICATION.  HOWEVER...WITH THE COLLAPSE OF THE INNER
CORE...IT MAY TAKE SOME TIME FOR ISIDORE TO RE-ORGANIZE AND FOR
THE WIND FIELD TO CONTRACT.  BASED ON THIS AND THE PREMISE THAT THE
CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER LAND LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS 
PACKAGE.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/1500Z 20.1N  89.5W    55 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     24/0000Z 20.5N  90.1W    40 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     24/1200Z 21.1N  90.7W    45 KTS...OVER WATER
36HR VT     25/0000Z 22.0N  91.4W    55 KTS
48HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N  92.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     26/1200Z 25.5N  93.0W    90 KTS
 
 
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