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HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 22 2002

THE CENTER HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST TRACK...AND
MOVED INLAND OVER NORTHWESTERN YUCATAN A FEW HOURS AGO.  THUS THE
CYCLONE IS WEAKENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO UNTIL IT MOVES
BACK OVER WATER.  ASIDE FROM THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...ATMOSPHERIC
AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION SO
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR ISIDORE TO RECOVER ITS PREVIOUS
INTENSITY AND MORE...PRESUMING THAT IT RE-ENTERS THE GULF TOMORROW.
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECASTS BY DAYS 2 AND 3 ARE BACK TO THOSE
SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...TROPICAL CYCLONE
INTENSITY FORECASTING HAS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES.  IF THE INNER CORE
STRUCTURE IS SEVERELY DISRUPTED BY THE CYCLONES TRANSIT OVER
LAND...IT MAY NOT BE ABLE TO RE-INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS ANTICIPATED.

THE FORWARD SPEED APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED AND CURRENT MOTION IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE A SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT...220/4.  THE MORE SOUTHERLY 
MOTION WAS PROBABLY THE RESULT OF MID-LEVEL RIDGING TO THE 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ISIDORE.  GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL HURRICANE 
MODEL AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TURN BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST 
WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTERWARDS...A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE SHOULD 
BEGIN TO BUILD TO THE EAST OF ISIDORE...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE A MORE 
NORTHWARD MOTION.  NOT MUCH INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED 
UNTIL A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM...PROBABLY 
BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

THE THREE-DAY FORECAST POINT IMPLIES AN EVENTUAL THREAT TO EITHER 
THE NORTHWEST OR NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST...HOWEVER IT IS STILL 
TOO EARLY TO BE MORE SPECIFIC ABOUT THE THREAT.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0300Z 20.8N  89.5W    90 KTS
12HR VT     23/1200Z 20.7N  90.3W    80 KTS
24HR VT     24/0000Z 21.0N  91.0W    95 KTS
36HR VT     24/1200Z 21.8N  92.0W   115 KTS
48HR VT     25/0000Z 22.8N  92.5W   125 KTS
72HR VT     26/0000Z 25.0N  93.0W   125 KTS
 
 
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