[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 21 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/5.  THE MAJOR GUIDANCE MODELS... 
AVN...GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS....ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT ABOUT A SLOW 
WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  FOR A 
PREVIEW OF THE LONGER TERM...THESE MODELS ARE ALSO IN AGREEMENT 
ABOUT ISIDORE GETTING PICKED UP BY THE A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES 
AFTER 72 HOURS AND HEADING NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS 
ADJUSTED A LITTLE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK GUIDANCE AND IS IN 
CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE PROXIMITY OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 
REQUIRES ISSUING A HURRICANE WARNING FOR ITS NORTH COAST. 

THE CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE REMAINS 964 MB AND GPS DROPSONDES SHOW 
THAT WINDS HAVE NOT INCREASED AND MIGHT BE A LITTLE LESS THAN THE 85 
KNOT ADVISORY INITIAL WIND SPEED.  HOWEVER...AN EYE IS APPEARING ON 
THE LAST FEW INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES.  THE RECON AIRCRAFT REPORTS 
CONCENTRIC EYE WALLS OF 15 AND 25 N MI DIAMETERS.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS 
LIGHT.  SO ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO FOR SOME SERIOUS STRENGTHENING AND THE 
FORECAST TO 115 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS IS THE SAME AS THE LAST ADVISORY.

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 22.4N  85.5W    85 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 22.6N  86.5W    90 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 22.3N  88.0W   100 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 22.2N  89.1W   105 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 21.8N  90.3W   110 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 21.7N  91.5W   115 KTS
 
 
NNNN


Webmaster