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HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002
 
ISIDORE SLOWED DOWN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS IT WAS CROSSING THE
WESTERN PORTION OF CUBA.  THE EYE WAS OBSERVED BY RADARS FROM HAVANA
...LA BAJADA CUBA...AND KEY WEST.  A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ESTIMATED
A MINIMUM PRESURE OF 964 MB JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  THE EYE IS NOW
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT MOST OF THE
CIRCULATION AND RAINBANDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT CUBA FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE WILL BE IN TROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND
06 UTC AND WILL DETERMINE IF ISIDORE LOST STRENGTH ON ITS LONG TREK
OVER WESTERN CUBA.  THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS WELL ORGANIZED WITH AN
IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW AND NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE BANDS.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS
SUGGEST WINDS BETWEEN 90 AND 100 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...INITIAL INTENSITY
IS KEPT AT 85 KNOTS SINCE THE EYE HAS BEEN MOVING OVER LAND FOR
SEVERAL HOURS.  MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST AN
IDEAL UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT.  THEREFORE...ISIDORE IS FORECAST
TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

MODELS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT TONIGHT. MOST OF THEM SHOW A
SLOW WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST MOVING HURRICANE ALONG AND NOT FAR FROM
THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS.
THIS IS THE EASIEST PART OF THE FORECAST. THEREAFTER...I SEE TROUBLE
ON THE HORIZON. THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...WHICH PREVIOUSLY KEPT
ISIDORE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS NOW TURNING THE HURRICANE
NORTHWARD.  NOGAPS AND THE GFDL ARE ALSO FORECASTING THE NORTHWARD
TURN BUT A LITTLE BIT SOONER. THE UK HAS BECOME THE ONLY MODEL THAT
MOVES THE HURRICANE WESTWARD TOWARD MEXICO.  THIS NORTHWARD TURN IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WHEN THE STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
BAHAMAS BECOMES REPLACED BY A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THERE IS
CONSENSUS AMONG MODELS IN THIS PATTERN CHANGE AND IN THE NORTHWARD 
TURN OF THE HURRICANE BUT THEY DIFFER IN THE TIMING.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 22.4N  84.6W    85 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 22.9N  85.4W    90 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 23.0N  87.0W   100 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 22.5N  88.0W   105 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 22.5N  89.0W   110 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 22.5N  90.0W   115 KTS
 
 
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