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HURRICANE ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 20 2002
 
ISIDORE CONTINUES ON TRACK WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 300/6.  WATER 
VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWARD PUSH FROM THE UPPER 
TROUGH EAST OF FLORIDA.  HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LOW IN THE GULF OF 
MEXICO IS NO LONGER ADVANCING ON ISIDORE...AND IN FACT...THERE IS 
NOW IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW FROM ISIDORE AHEAD OF THIS LOW.  

MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW IN CONSIDERABLY BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IT WAS
EARLIER.  THE CANADIAN MODEL...WHICH HAD CONSISTENTLY BEEN CALLING
FOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION...HAS NOW GONE WEST.  THE GFDL IS MUCH
WEAKER WITH ITS NORTHWARD JOG...WHILE THE NCEP GLOBAL FORECAST
SYSTEM...OR GFS...THE MODEL FORMERLY KNOWN AS THE AVN...HAS ACTUALLY
SHIFTED NORTHWARD A BIT FROM ITS PREVIOUS RUN.  THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH RIDGING IN THE NORTHERN GULF TO KEEP ISIDORE ON A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

ISIDORE WILL NOT BE AFFECTED VERY MUCH BY ITS BRIEF TRAVERSE OF 
WESTERN CUBA...AND WILL ENTER THE GULF WITH AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW 
PATTERN.  THE SHIPS MODEL THAT INCLUDES THE EFFECT OF OCEAN HEAT 
CONTENT BRINGS ISIDORE TO 121 KT IN 72 HOURS.  THE FORECAST FORWARD 
SPEED SHOULD BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT COLD WATER UPWELLING TO 
AFFECT THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.  AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST CALLS FOR ISIDORE TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/2100Z 21.9N  84.3W    85 KTS
12HR VT     21/0600Z 22.4N  85.3W    90 KTS
24HR VT     21/1800Z 22.8N  86.4W   100 KTS
36HR VT     22/0600Z 22.9N  87.5W   105 KTS
48HR VT     22/1800Z 22.8N  88.5W   110 KTS
72HR VT     23/1800Z 22.5N  90.0W   115 KTS
 
 
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