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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 19 2002
 
ISIDORE IS STRENGTHENING.  THE HURRICANE HUNTERS FOUND THAT THE
CENTRAL PRESSURE DROPPED TO 990 MB AND A GPS DROPSONDE INDICATES
THAT SURFACE WINDS ARE NEAR 55 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO REPORTED A
PARTIAL EYEWALL.  IR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS OVER THE
CENTER.  SINCE THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE IN AN ATMOSPHERIC AND
OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT THAT IS FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...IT IS VERY
LIKELY THAT ISIDORE WILL BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY.  THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND WILL PROBABLY BE TEMPORARILY INTERRUPTED WHILE
ISIDORE INTERACTS WITH LAND.  HOWEVER SINCE THE TERRAIN OF WESTERN
CUBA IS NOT THAT RUGGED...IT SHOULD CAUSE LITTLE IF ANY WEAKENING.

THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THE CENTER TO BE A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
PREVIOUS TRACK...BUT THIS MAY BE ONLY A WOBBLE.  THE SMOOTHED
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10.  DATA FROM THE G-IV JET
SURVEILLANCE MISSION YESTERDAY EVENING SHOWED A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ISIDORE...WHICH SHOULD MAINTAIN A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IN THE SHORT TERM...AND BRING
ISIDORE NEAR WESTERN CUBA LATER TODAY. OVER THE ENSUING FEW
DAYS...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE LARGE
AMPLITUDE TROUGH THAT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE MIDWEST U.S. TODAY 
WILL HAVE ON ISIDORE.  GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BECOME MORE 
DIVERSE.  THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL...GFS...SHOWS LITTLE EFFECT OF THE 
TROUGH AND TAKES ISIDORE WESTWARD...EVEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
GULF OF MEXICO IN THE LATTER PART OF THE PERIOD.  THE U.K. MET. 
OFFICE AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...AND CLOSER TO 
FLORIDA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE 
GUIDANCE...AND QUITE SLOW AT DAYS 2 AND 3...REFLECTING GREAT 
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE ISIDORE MAY EVENTUALLY GO.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 20.0N  80.8W    55 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 21.0N  81.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 22.2N  83.1W    75 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 23.1N  84.4W    75 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 23.5N  85.0W    85 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 24.0N  86.0W    85 KTS
 
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