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TROPICAL STORM ISIDORE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 18 2002
 
ISIDORE HAS A LARGE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW.
HOWEVER...IT HAS LOST SOME OF ITS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS
PROBABLY MEANS THAT THE CYCLONE IS NOT STRENGTHENING AT THIS TIME.
THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE THAT REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 998 MB AND PEAK WINDS OF 56 KNOTS NEAR 0000 UTC.
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 50 KNOTS.  ISIDORE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND IS HEADING TOWARD AN
AREA OF VERY HIGH UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT.  IF ISIDORE TAKES
ADVANTAGE OF SUCH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...IT SHOULD BE A HURRICANE
BEFORE REACHING CUBA WITH CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  I HAVE NEVER SEEN SO MANY CLOSED ISOBARS IN THE OUTPUT OF
THE GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NOGAPS. THIS IS PROBABLY
AND INDICATION THAT ISIDORE WILL BE A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO.
 
ISIDORE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 8 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL
TRACK IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AROUND
A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM FLORIDA SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD BE
CROSSING WESTERN CUBA IN ABOUT 24 TO 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...ONLY A
SMALL DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE TRACK WOULD REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE
OF WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS.
 
BEYOND 48 HOURS...THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND
ISIDORE IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT WESTWARD OR MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF
DAYS.  THIS LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS SUGGESTED BY MOST OF
THE GUIDANCE.  BOTH...THE GFDL AND THE CANADIAN MODELS MAINTAIN A
NORTHWARD TRACK ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF
WORK IN THE NEXT COMING DAYS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0300Z 19.7N  79.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     19/1200Z 20.7N  80.4W    60 KTS
24HR VT     20/0000Z 22.0N  82.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     20/1200Z 23.0N  83.5W    75 KTS
48HR VT     21/0000Z 23.5N  84.5W    85 KTS
72HR VT     22/0000Z 24.0N  85.5W    85 KTS
 
 
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