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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 17 2002

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE THAT A CLOSED 
SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS REDEVELOPED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE SOUTH OF 
JAMAICA AND SO ADVISORIES ARE REINITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
TEN.  THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS STILL NOT VERY WELL DEFINED...AND IS 
LOCATED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AS THE SYSTEM IS 
STILL IN A SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  RECENT IMAGES SHOW SOME BANDING 
STRUCTURE DEVELOPING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  

BECAUSE THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEW...THE INITIAL MOTION IS VERY 
UNCERTAIN...BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 270/8...PERHAPS LESS.  THE 
PRIMARY STEERING FACTORS ARE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE RUNNING EAST/WEST 
ACROSS FLORIDA...AND THE MID-TO UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT EXTENDS FROM 
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.  
GLOBAL MODELS AGREE GENERALLY THAT THE RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD 
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH RETREATS 
WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT AS TO WHAT BECOMES OF 
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  BOTH THE AVN AND CANADIAN MODELS HINT AT 
REDEVELOPMENT OF A CENTER ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA UNDERNEATH 
THE MOST FAVORABLE UPPER-ENVIRONMENT.  THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY. 
THE NOGAPS AND GFDL WANT TO TAKE THE DEPRESSION NORTHWARD OVER 
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CUBA...RESPECTIVELY.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
SHOWS A SOFTER NORTHWESTWARD TURN IN AN ATTEMPT TO BE MORE 
CONSISTENT WITH THE 500 MB AVN AND UKMET LARGE SCALE FORECAST 
FIELDS.  PERHAPS COINCIDENTALLY...THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THE BAM AND LBAR MODELS.

THE AVN HAS BEEN OVERFORECASTING A DECREASE IN SHEAR OVER THE PAST 
FEW DAYS...AND THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH IS DEPENDENT ON THE AVN 
FIELDS...RESPONDS TO THIS BY TAKING THE DEPRESSION TO 82 KT IN 72 
HOURS.  THERE ARE SOME HINTS IN THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THOUGH THAT 
THE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO BECOME LESS 
HOSTILE.  GIVEN THE CURRENT SHEAR PATTERN...AND AVN AND UKMET 
FORECASTS THAT SHOW SO LITTLE DEVELOPMENT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY 
FORECAST WILL ONLY BRING THE DEPRESSION TO NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH 
BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 15.9N  77.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 16.2N  78.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 17.0N  80.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 18.0N  81.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     19/1200Z 19.0N  83.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     20/1200Z 22.0N  85.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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