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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 15 2002

THE AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT SEARCHED EXTENSIVELY...AND COULD NOT FIND A 
CLOSED CIRCULATION.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ABC ISLANDS 
SHOWED ONLY A SLIGHT WIND SHIFT FROM EAST-NORTHEAST TO EAST 
SOUTHEAST.  THEREFORE THE DEPRESSION IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A 
TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG ABOUT 70W.  DEEP CONVECTION 
HAS PRACTICALLY DISSIPATED IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE 
WAVE...NEAR WHERE THE DEPRESSION WAS PROJECTED TO BE.

THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IN
A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE...AS DISCUSSED EARLIER...GLOBAL MODELS ARE
FORECASTING A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.
THEREFORE... REGENERATION IS A POSSIBILITY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE SYSTEM CLOSELY.

UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY.
ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO CHECK THE WAVE 
TOMORROW. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/2100Z ...DEGENERATED INTO TROPICAL WAVE
 
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