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TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 14 2002
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THE DEPRESSION
IS OVER NORTHERN VENEZUELA. DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED
CONSIDERABLY NEAR THE CENTER BUT A FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION
REMAINS. ASSUMING THIS CENTER IS NOT DISRUPTED TOO SEVERELY BY THE
MOUNTAINS OF VENEZUELA...THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND THE STORM IS
FORECAST TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AFTER THE DEPRESSION
EMERGES FROM SOUTH AMERICA. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
IS SHIFTING WESTWARD AND IS NOT LIKELY TO INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS STEADY INTENSIFICATION AS
THE SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE PROGRESSIVELY WARMER AND HIGHER HEAT
CONTENT WATERS OF THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD MOTION WITH A BEND TOWARD THE RIGHT AS
THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THIS EVENINGS TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED
SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST OF EARLIER MODEL RUNS WITH THE CYCLONE STILL
MOVING WESTWARD..ABOUT 275/19. THE 1800 UTC GFS HAD THE BEST
INITIALIZATION OF THE AVAILABLE GLOBAL MODELS AND IS LEANED TOWARD
HEAVILY IN THE FORECAST. THE UKMET AND NOGAPS LOOK TO BE TOO FAR TO
THE NORTH AND EAST AS THEY ARE ALREADY MOVING THE DEPRESSION
ERRONEOUSLY ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. IN ADDITION...THE MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST TWENTY-FOUR HOURS OF MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE
HAS BEEN TO SHIFT THE TRACK FARTHER WEST. THE FORECAST TRACK HAS
BEEN SHIFTED ACCORDINGLY...BETWEEN THE GFDL AND GFS MODEL SOLUTIONS.
FORECASTER BLAKE/LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 15/0300Z 10.4N 63.3W 25 KTS
12HR VT 15/1200Z 10.8N 66.2W 25 KTS
24HR VT 16/0000Z 12.5N 69.4W 30 KTS
36HR VT 16/1200Z 14.3N 72.2W 40 KTS
48HR VT 17/0000Z 16.5N 74.5W 50 KTS
72HR VT 18/0000Z 19.0N 77.0W 65 KTS
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