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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2002
THE CENTER OF THE STORM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MEANDER...ALTHOUGH THE
LATEST FIX AT 0208Z SUGGESTS A NORTHWARD MOTION. ALL OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS ABOUT A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION AT 10 KNOTS OR MORE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS AS THE STORM
BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH. SO THE FORECAST IS FOR THE CENTER TO
BE NEAR THE COAST AT AROUND 12Z ON SATURDAY. THEREAFTER A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS THE CONSENSUS OVER THE NEXT THREE
DAYS AND WHATEVER IS LEFT SHOULD BE EXTRATROPICAL AS IT EMERGES OVER
THE ATLANTIC NEAR NEW ENGLAND. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT THIS DOES NOT
REQUIRE A CHANGE TO THE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN IN THE 1001 TO 1003 MB RANGE ACCORDING
TO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS. THE PLANE ALSO REPORTED A 58
KNOT WIND AT 850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL ABOUT 100 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER. EVEN THOUGH THIS IS THE ONLY EVIDENCE OF 45 KNOT SURFACE
WINDS...THE WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS ON THIS BASIS.
THERE HAS BEEN A BURSTING CDO PATTERN DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...
BUT IT APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AND CLOUD TOPS SEEM TO BE WARMING.
THERE IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS...BUT THE SHIPS MODEL DOES NOT SHOW MUCH AS THERE IS ABOUT
20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR AFFECTING THE STORM.
NOTE THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER IS NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 14/0300Z 28.2N 89.1W 45 KTS
12HR VT 14/1200Z 30.0N 88.2W 50 KTS
24HR VT 15/0000Z 33.0N 85.7W 30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT 15/1200Z 35.7N 81.6W 25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT 16/0000Z 38.6N 76.6W 25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 17/0000Z 44.5N 63.5W 40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
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