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TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 13 2002
 
HANNA HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN STRUCTURE DURING THE DAY.  THE
CENTER CONTINUES TO BE EXPOSED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM THE RECON
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE AND
A LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTER.  MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 1002 AND 1004
MB DURING THE DAY.  THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR HANNA TO
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT BEFORE LANDFALL IF THE SHEAR DECREASES AS
FORECAST.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT ANTICIPATED THAT HANNA WILL REACH
HURRICANE INTENSITY.
 
HANNA HAS REFUSED TO START THE MUCH ANTICIPATED NORTH AND
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...THE FORECAST STEERING PATTERN
IS SUCH THAT THERE IS NO CHOICE BUT TO FORECAST HANNA TO MOVE NORTH
AND THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR AS HANNA
BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.  ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD BE ON THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA EARLY
SATURDAY.  IT SHOULD THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED SATES WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED
AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
 
IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER IS TO THE EAST AND NOT
NEAR THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 27.8N  89.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 29.5N  89.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 32.0N  87.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     15/0600Z 35.0N  83.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     15/1800Z 37.5N  78.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     16/1800Z 43.5N  67.0W    40 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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