HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM HANNA DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 13 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CENTER OF HANNA CONTINUES TO BE
EXPOSED.  THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS LOCATED WITHIN THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE LARGE CIRCULATION WHERE MOST OF THE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS ARE CONFINED.  THIS HAS BEEN CONFIRMED BY DATA FROM AN
AIR FORCE PLANE AND QUIKSCAT.  BOTH MINIMUM PRESSURE AND INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAIN ABOUT 1002/1003 MB AND 40 KNOTS...RESPECTIVELY.
THERE IS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY FOR HANNA TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT
BEFORE LANDFALL AS THE SHEAR DECREASES.  HOWEVER...IT IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THAT HANNA WILL REACH HURRICANE INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT...HANNA JOGGED TO THE NORTHWEST BUT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD BEGIN THE EXPECTED NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD TURN VERY
SOON.  HANNA IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY AND
THEN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF HANNA SHOULD BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE SATURDAY.  IT SHOULD
THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED SATES WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.

IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER IS TO THE EAST AND NOT 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.
  
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/1500Z 27.7N  89.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     14/0000Z 28.7N  89.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     14/1200Z 31.0N  88.0W    45 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     15/0000Z 34.0N  84.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     15/1200Z 36.5N  79.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     16/1200Z 42.0N  68.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
NNNN