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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 12 2002
 
ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS THAT DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING WESTWARD OR SOUTH OF
DUE WEST...IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE CENTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING
AROUND A MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION. LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD
BEGIN A SLOW NORTHWARD TRACK TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY AS A WEAK
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DEVELOPS. ON THIS
TRACK...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGHTENED AT ALL DURING THE DAY.
HOWEVER...IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION BUT MOST OF THE
CONVECTION REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.  AIR FORCE PLANE DATA INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL 30 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF
1002 MB. THERE IS A 24 TO 36 HOUR WINDOW WHEN THE SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO RELAX AND SOME STRENGTHENING COULD OCCUR.  THIS CHANCE IS
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
BEYOND 36 HOURS...A NEW TROUGH WILL FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS A
WEAKENING SYSTEM AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME
EXTRATROPICAL.
 
BECAUSE THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY AND THE FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT IS NOT REQUIRED TO MAKE CHANGES
IN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 26.8N  87.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 27.5N  87.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 29.0N  87.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 30.5N  86.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 32.5N  85.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     15/1800Z 36.0N  80.0W    25 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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