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TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2002
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE WELL
DEFINED CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
SYSTEM RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE ON IMAGERY. MOST OF THE
WEATHER IS CONFINED TO AN IMPRESSIVE CYCLONIC CURVED BAND
TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE CENTER IS SMALL AND SHALLOW BUT IT
HAS VERY GOOD PRESENTATION ON HIGH RESOLUTION VISIBLE IMAGES. A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST ARRIVED TO THE AREA OF THE DEPRESSION AND
WILL DETERMINE IF THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY RAPID STRENGTHENING AND
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM ONLY TO 45 KNOTS BY 36 HOURS
BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A
SMALL DEVELOPING RIDGE OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL PROVIDE A SLOW
NORTHWARD STEERING DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS MOTION WOULD
BRING THE CENTER NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN FACT...IT APPEARS
THAT THE SLOW MOTION HAS ALREADY BEGUN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. IT IS EMPHASIZED THAT MOST OF THE WEATHER
IS TO THE EAST AND NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTER.
BEYOND 36 HOURS...A NEW TROUGH WILL FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AS A
WEAKENING SYSTEM. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS...PRIMARILY THE NCEP MODEL.
FORECASTER AVILA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/1500Z 27.3N 86.7W 30 KTS
12HR VT 13/0000Z 28.0N 86.7W 35 KTS
24HR VT 13/1200Z 29.0N 86.7W 40 KTS
36HR VT 14/0000Z 30.5N 86.5W 40 KTS
48HR VT 14/1200Z 32.5N 85.0W 30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT 15/1200Z 35.5N 80.5W 25 KTS...INLAND
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