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HURRICANE GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2002
 
JUST AFTER THE 5 AM ADVISORY...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT FOUND 80 KT WINDS AT 850 MB SOUTHWEST OF THE
CENTER.  VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEVELOPED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITH CONVECTION WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER.
BASED ON THIS...THE 975 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE...AND SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...GUSTAV IS UPGRADED
TO A 65 KT HURRICANE.  WHILE LITTLE ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS EXPECTED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE
THAT BAROCLINIC CYCLOGENESIS IS OCCURRING OVER THE NEW ENGLAND 
STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  GUSTAV IS FORECAST TO MERGE
WITH THIS DEVELOPING NON-TROPICAL LOW AND BECOME A LARGE AND
POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL STORM AS IT CROSSES NOVA SCOTIA AND 
NEWFOUNDLAND DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 055/20.  LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE INDICATES
GUSTAV SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD FOR 24-36 HR...THEN SLOW AND 
TURN LEFT ONCE IT REACHES THE LABRADOR SEA.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST 
TRACK REFLECTS THIS GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 38.6N  69.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 42.4N  64.8W    65 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 47.2N  59.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     13/0000Z 51.5N  54.6W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     13/1200Z 54.7N  52.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     14/1200Z 60.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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