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TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 055/21.  THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE
TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO.  GUSTAV IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD.
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 AND 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB.
 THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT A 60 KNOT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE
TWO ESTIMATES.  THERE IS AN IMPRESSIVE CDO FEATURE OFFSET TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER POSITION ESTIMATE.  BUOY 44004 IS DIRECTLY
IN THE STORMS PATH AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO KNOW IF GUSTAV HAS
REACHED HURRICANE STRENGTH FROM THIS BUOYS WIND OBSERVATIONS.
GUSTAVE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING COLD WATER AND INCREASING VERTICAL
SHEAR AND ONLY HAS 12 HOURS OR LESS TO STRENGTHEN AS A TROPICAL
SYSTEM.  IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY 24 HOURS.

AN AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT HAS JUST REACHED THE CENTER.  ON THE OUTBOUND 
LEG...IT REPORTED FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS NEAR 70 KNOTS IN THE DEEP 
CONVECTIVE CDO AREA.  THE DROPSONDE DATA IS NOT YET AVAILABLE FOR 
THIS ADVISORY.  WITH A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 975 MB MEASURED BY THE 
AIRCRAFT...GUSTAV MIGHT BE A HURRICANE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0900Z 37.4N  72.0W    60 KTS
12HR VT     11/1800Z 39.7N  67.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     12/0600Z 44.5N  61.2W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     12/1800Z 49.3N  56.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     13/0600Z 52.5N  52.5W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     14/0600Z 57.5N  52.5W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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