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TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE SEP 10 2002
 
GUSTAV LOOKS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY MORE TROPICAL THAN IT HAS EVER
BEEN WITH A WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE CENTER.
THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF AN EYE FORMING.  SATELLITE ESTIMATES
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 55 KNOTS BUT THERE ARE NO
OBSERVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OR MAX WINDS AT THE TIME OF
THIS ADVISORY.  THERE IS A CHANCE THAT GUSTAV REACHES HURRICANE
INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE IT MOVES OVER COOL
WATERS AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT GUSTAV HAS MADE THE EXPECTED TURN AND IS NOW
MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ABOUT 16 KNOTS...AWAY FROM THE U.S. COAST.
GUSTAV IS ALREADY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WOULD STEER THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.  THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
DIRECTION BUT DIFFERS IN FORWARD SPEED.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE OUTER
BANKS.  BECAUSE THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE 
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED OUTWARD 
SIGNIFICANTLY AT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 36.2N  73.9W    60 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 37.5N  71.5W    65 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 40.5N  66.5W    65 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 44.0N  60.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     13/0000Z 51.0N  53.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     14/0000Z 58.0N  47.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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