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SUBTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 10 2002
 
GUSTAV STILL DOES NOT APPEAR VERY TROPICAL.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
DATA FROM THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET SHOW THAT GUSTAV REMAINS
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LOW...WITH LITTLE EVIDENCE OF A WARM CORE.
HOWEVER...THERE IS NOW GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MOST RECENT
LOW-LEVEL RECON FIX AND THE MID-LEVEL RADAR CENTER...SO IT APPEARS
THAT THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS ABOUT TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND
GUSTAV MAY TRANSITION SOON.  FOR NOW...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE STILL
60 TO 90 NMI AWAY FROM THE CENTER.  SOME INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE
IN THE SHORT TERM IF THE ORGANIZATION CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS
DEVELOPED FOR PURELY TROPICAL SYSTEMS.  BAROCLINIC FORCING WILL HELP
THE SYSTEM BEYOND 36 HOURS.

FOLLOWING THE RECON FIXES HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE...BUT WITH A LITTLE
IMAGINATION THEY APPEAR TO DEPICT AT LEAST TWO CYCLONIC LOOPS OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS. SMOOTHING OUT THE LOOPS IN THE RECON TRACK GIVES
AN INITIAL MOTION OF 360/8...AND IT APPEARS THAT THE ANTICIPATED
RECURVATURE IS BEGINNING.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY FASTER 
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/0900Z 33.5N  75.5W    50 KTS
12HR VT     10/1800Z 35.0N  75.0W    55 KTS
24HR VT     11/0600Z 37.0N  72.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     11/1800Z 39.0N  67.5W    60 KTS
48HR VT     12/0600Z 43.5N  60.0W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     13/0600Z 52.0N  46.0W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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