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SUBTROPICAL STORM GUSTAV DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 08 2002
 
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT IS UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM 
GUSTAV.  THIS IS BASED ON AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT 
REPORT OF 40 KNOTS AT 1500 FEET TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ALONG 
WITH 1006 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE.  SO GUSTAV IS JUST BARELY OF STORM 
INTENSITY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/10.  A MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE 
NORTH OF THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN IT A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD AND 
DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS 
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS THE 
SYSTEM GETS PICKED UP BY A TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THIS IS THE 
SCENARIO OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND ALL OF THE OTHER GLOBAL 
MODELS...AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THE
FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE CENTER ALMOST TO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST IN 
36 TO 48 HOURS...AND REQUIRES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
NORTH CAROLINA.
 
THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 35 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS 
THE WIND SPEED SLOWLY TO 50 KNOTS IN 36 HOURS AND 60 KNOTS IN 72 
HOURS.  THIS FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND THE 
SHIPS STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODEL.  IF GUSTAV ACQUIRES MORE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 30.6N  71.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 32.0N  72.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 33.2N  74.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 33.7N  75.7W    50 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 34.8N  75.4W    55 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 38.5N  67.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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