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SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 2002
 
A LARGE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC 
OCEAN HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING AND THIS SYSTEM IS 
NOW IDENTIFIED AS SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT.

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING ABOUT 030/10 FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS.  A 
MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO TURN 
IT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND DECREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED DURING THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS.  THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD 
THE NORTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM GETS PICKED UP BY A TROUGH IN THE 
WESTERLIES.  THIS IS THE SCENARIO OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM AND 
OTHER MODELS AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK.  THIS 
FORECAST BRINGS THE SYSTEM RATHER CLOSE TO THE COAST OF NORTH 
CAROLINA IN 48 HOURS.

THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KNOTS.  THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE 
THAT THE WIND SPEED MAY BE HIGHER...A 40-KNOT UNCONTAMINATED 
QUIKSCAT WIND SPEED AND A SUSPICIOUS REPORT FROM A DRIFTING BUOY TO 
THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GRADUALLY BRINGS 
THE WIND SPEED SLOWLY TO 45 KNOTS IN 72 HOURS.  THIS FOLLOWS THE 
GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM GUIDANCE.  IF THIS SYSTEM ACQUIRES MORE 
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...IT COULD STRENGTHEN MORE THAN FORECAST.  
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 28.7N  70.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 30.4N  71.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 31.7N  72.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     10/0000Z 32.5N  74.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     10/1200Z 33.0N  75.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     11/1200Z 36.0N  71.0W    45 KTS
  
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