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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 08 2002

THERE IS LITTLE...IF ANY...DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
DEPRESSION.  THIS...ALONG WITH NEIGHBORING SHIP OBSERVATIONS... 
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS QUITE WEAK.  CURRENT INTENSITY IS REDUCED 
TO 25 KT.  NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA 
SO THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 H.  
HOWEVER...UNLESS THE DEPRESSION MAKES A COMEBACK SOON...DISSIPATION 
WILL OCCUR MORE QUICKLY THAN INDICATED HERE.

MOTION IS ABOUT 280/8.  THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN 
PROVIDIN THE STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...SO THE FORWARD 
SPEED SHOULD SLOW SOMEWHAT AND THE SYSTEM...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS 
LIKELY TO TURN A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 24.7N  50.4W    25 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 25.0N  51.8W    25 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 25.4N  53.3W    25 KTS
36HR VT     09/1800Z 25.7N  54.4W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     10/0600Z 26.2N  55.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     11/0600Z 27.0N  57.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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