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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT SEP 07 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/07.  THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION HAS SOME HOLES IN IT AND
THE AVIATION MODEL DEVELOPS TROUGHING NEAR 50-55 DEGREES WEST
LONGITUDE OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  ALSO THE AVIATION MODEL DOES NOT
INITIALIZE THIS WEAK DEPRESSION.  THE GFDL AND UKMET SHOW A MOSTLY
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
THIS GUIDANCE AND IS ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED ON THE WEST SIDE OF LIMITED AND
DECREASING DEEP CONVECTION.  DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE AT 30
KNOTS.  WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING...THE
UPPER WINDS ARE HOSTILE AS SUGGESTED BY THE CURRENT TREND OF THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR NO CHANGE TO THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 30 KNOTS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 24.7N  48.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 25.0N  49.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 25.3N  51.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 25.8N  53.0W    30 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 26.5N  54.5W    30 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 28.0N  56.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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