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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 07 2002
 
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SATELLITE AND RADAR..SHOW THE CENTER OF FAY
IS WELL INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 
IS 290/6.  THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM SHOWS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
LOCATED NORTH AND BUILDING WEST OF THE DEPRESSION.  THE TRACK 
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD MOTION WITH A 
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST.  EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW WILL 
LIKELY DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR TWO...A TRACK IS GIVEN THROUGH 72 HOURS 
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS SLOW MOVER.
 
WIND SPEEDS ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE 25 KNOT RANGE...BOTH INLAND TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW CENTER AND OVER THE GULF.  THEREFORE THE 
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS.  A RIG SOUTH OF LOUISIANA REPORTS 
SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET...SO A RADIUS OF 12 FOOT SEAS IS GIVEN TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  THIS RIG...639...ALSO REPORTS SUSTAINED 35 
KNOTS...BUT THE ANEMOMETER IS AT 105 FEET ABOVE SEA LEVEL.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/1500Z 29.2N  97.3W    30 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  98.2W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     08/1200Z 29.8N  99.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     09/0000Z 29.8N  99.6W    20 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     09/1200Z 29.6N 100.2W    20 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     10/1200Z 29.2N 100.8W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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