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TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 06 2002
 
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF FAY IS NOT TYPICAL OF A TROPICAL STORM
AND IT RATHER RESEMBLES A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE OVERALL LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED AND THE PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY FALLING BUT THERE ARE STILL
A FEW SMALL VORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION.
MOST IMPORTANTLY...THE MAIN CENTER IS STILL REMOVED FROM THE
CONVECTION. THEREFORE...INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 50 KNOTS AND
ONLY A MODEST STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE
MEXICO/US BORDER IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS OVER THE CYCLONE.  WITH SUCH A VIGOROUS SURFACE CIRCULATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAY...ONLY SMALL RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR...WHICH
COULD HAPPEN IF THE UPPER-LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD...WOULD RESULT IN FAY
REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
FAY HAS BARELY MOVED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED
STATES WILL PROVIDE A GENERAL WEST-TO WEST-NORTHWEST STEERING.  FAY
SHOULD BEGIN A WEST- TO WEST-NORTHWEST DRIFT ON SATURDAY AS
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED.  THE PRECISE LANDFALL POINT IS LIKELY TO BE OF
LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE WEATHER NORTH OF AND
WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.

A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING FAY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/0300Z 28.0N  95.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     07/1200Z 28.0N  95.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     08/0000Z 28.5N  96.5W    60 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     08/1200Z 29.0N  97.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     09/0000Z 29.5N  99.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     10/0000Z 29.5N 100.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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