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TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 06 2002
 
RECON REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT FAY HAS A BROAD AND 
ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 
SUCCESSION OF CLOUD SWIRLS ROTATING AROUND THE BROADER LOW...WHICH 
STILL IS BASICALLY STATIONARY.  THE WELL-DEFINED BAND SEEN ON RADAR 
EARLIER IS NOT AS WELL-DEFINED NOW.  HOWEVER...THE PRESSURE 
CONTINUES TO STEADILY FALL...AND 18Z SPECIAL NWS RAOBS SHOW THE 200 
MB FLOW ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BACKING...IMPROVING THE OUTFLOW TO THE 
NORTHWEST OF FAY AND POSSIBLY DECREASING THE SHEAR.  WHETHER THIS 
WILL BE ENOUGH OF AN IMPROVEMENT TO ALLOW FAY TO REACH HURRICANE 
STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL IS A CLOSE CALL...AND THE HURRICANE WATCH 
MIGHT BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING TONIGHT.  MOST RECENT PEAK RECON 
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 57 KT...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 
KT.
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WITH JUST A 
SMALL NUDGE SOUTHWARD.  THE PRECISE LANDFALL POINT IS LIKELY TO BE 
OF LITTLE SIGNIFICANCE IN ANY EVENT...WITH THE WEATHER NORTH OF AND 
WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 27.8N  94.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 28.1N  95.5W    55 KTS
24HR VT     07/1800Z 28.6N  96.5W    60 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     08/0600Z 29.0N  97.6W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     08/1800Z 29.4N  98.6W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     09/1800Z 29.5N 100.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING INLAND
 
 
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