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TROPICAL STORM FAY DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT FRI SEP 06 2002
 
RECON REPORTED SPOT WINDS OF 68 KT...A BROADER AREA OF 60 KT 
WINDS...AND A VISUAL SPOT SURFACE ESTIMATE OF 55 KT...BUT THEY STILL 
HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO CLOSE OFF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER.  RADAR 
IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED BANDING TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.  THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 50 KT BASED ON THE RECON REPORTS.

ESTIMATING A SYSTEM MOTION IS DIFFICULT WHEN THERE IS NO WELL 
DEFINED CENTER TO FOLLOW.  SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN SHOWING A 
CLOUD SWIRL BUT THE AIRCRAFT IS FINDING ONLY A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT 
AND VARIABLE WINDS.  THE OVERALL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A 
WESTWARD DRIFT.  THERE IS A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF FAY THAT 
IS EXPECTED TO GENTLY NUDGE THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS.  WHILE THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT 
OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A TRACK FURTHER SOUTH THAN INDICATED 
BELOW...WE ARE STILL PRESUMING THAT THERE WILL BE SOME REDEVELOPMENT 
OF THE CENTER NORTHWARD THAT WILL RESULT IN AN OVERALL WNW TO NW 
SYSTEM TRACK.  IN ANY EVENT...ALL THE WIND AND WEATHER IS NORTH OF 
THE CENTER.

THERE IS AN UPPER LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST OF FAY THAT APPEARS TO BE 
PROVIDING A LITTLE MORE SHEAR THAN VENTILATION...AND THE BETTER 
UPPER CONDITIONS ARE LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CURRENT CENTER.  AS A 
RESULT...ONLY MODEST ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO 
LANDFALL.  THE UNCERTAINTIES IN INTENSITY FORECASTING... 
HOWEVER...HAVE NECESSITATED THE ISSUANCE OF A HURRICANE WATCH AT 
THIS TIME.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 27.9N  95.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 28.3N  95.3W    55 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 28.7N  96.0W    55 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     08/0000Z 29.3N  97.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     08/1200Z 29.7N  98.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     09/1200Z 30.0N  99.5W    20 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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