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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU SEP 05 2002
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND A SMALL 
CLOSED CIRCULATION WITHIN A LARGE BROAD LOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF 
OF MEXICO.  WHILE THE CIRCULATION DID NOT TECHNICALLY MEET THE 
REQUIREMENTS FOR A VORTEX MESSAGE...IT WAS CLOSED ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY 
INITIATING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX.  THE AIRCRAFT ALSO 
FOUND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 40 KT A SHORT DISTANCE OFFSHORE OF 
GALVESTON.  REPORTS FROM SOME OF THE OIL RIGS INDICATE THAT SURFACE 
WINDS ARE VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY.  STEERING CURRENTS ARE WEAK...BUT 
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A VERY SLOW GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT OVER 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THIS SLOW MOTION WILL ALLOW FOR THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A SEVERE FLOODING EVENT ALONG THE TEXAS AND/OR 
LOUISIANA COAST.

DEPENDING WHERE THE SURFACE CIRCULATION FIRMS UP...THE UPPER-LEVEL 
WINDS COULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH SHEAR TO THE 
WEST OF THE CURRENT CENTER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST.  THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO STRENGTHEN ROUGHLY IN 
ACCORD WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 28.1N  93.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 28.5N  93.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 28.9N  94.3W    45 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 29.4N  94.8W    50 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     07/1800Z 30.0N  95.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     08/1800Z 30.5N  96.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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