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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 05 2002

EDOUARD CONSISTS PRIMARILY OF A SWIRL OF LOW/MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS
WITH A FEW SHOWERS CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  SOME CONVECTION
CONTINUES OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST.  SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 1010 MB...AND
THAT WINDS OVER LAND ARE 15 KT OR LESS.  THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE 
REDUCED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY ON THE ASSUMPTION THAT SOME
STRONGER WINDS REMAIN OVER WATER EAST OF THE CENTER...BUT THIS MAY
BE GENEROUS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 250/6...AND RADAR DATA SUGGESTS THE
SYSTEM MAY BE MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN THAT SINCE 06Z.  EDOUARD
IS SOUTH OF RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN U. S. AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR 36-48 HR.  THIS SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING WESTWARD OR
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD.  AFTER THAT TIME...EDOUARD WILL BE APPROACHING
WHAT IS FORECAST TO BE A PERSISTENT AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  EVEN IF THIS AREA DOES NOT DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT SHOULD
CAUSE EDOUARD TO TURN MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  MOST TRACK FORECAST
MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS
IT BY UPDATING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
EDOUARD CONTINUES UNDER 35-55 KT NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND
LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS AND PROXIMITY TO THE DISTURBANCE IN THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION AFTER
THE CYCLONE REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO.

WHILE EDOUARD DOES NOT APPEAR TO HAVE THE RIGHT DYNAMICS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA MEANS THAT ADDITIONAL TOTALS OF 2-4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0900Z 29.0N  81.9W    25 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     05/1800Z 28.9N  82.6W    20 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     06/0600Z 28.7N  83.6W    20 KTS...OVER WATER
36HR VT     06/1800Z 28.8N  84.8W    20 KTS
48HR VT     07/0600Z 29.2N  85.9W    20 KTS
72HR VT     08/0600Z 30.0N  88.0W    20 KTS
 
 
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