HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2002
 
EDOUARD MADE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF DAYTONA BEACH BETWEEN 00Z AND
01Z.  SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED TO
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THEREFORE THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AND 
WARNING ARE DISCONTINUED.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE
CENTER MOVES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA.  SINCE THERE IS NO INDICATION 
THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... 
RE-INTENSIFICATION...ASSUMING EDOUARD MOVES INTO THE GULF...SEEMS A 
REMOTE POSSIBILITY AT BEST.  IN FACT...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS THE 
VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASING TO OVER 40 KT IN THE LATTER PART OF THE 
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SYSTEM STILL MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAIN...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE TRACK...OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 250/5.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  EDOUARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD ON THE SOUTH
SIDE OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE 
GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE U.K. MET...WHICH 
REFUSES TO MOVE EDOUARD ACROSS FLORIDA.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 29.3N  81.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     05/1200Z 29.0N  82.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     06/0000Z 28.7N  83.0W    25 KTS...OVER WATER
36HR VT     06/1200Z 28.7N  84.0W    25 KTS
48HR VT     07/0000Z 28.9N  85.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     08/0000Z 29.5N  87.0W    25 KTS
 
NNNN