HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 04 2002
 
TRYING TO TIME LANDFALL WITH A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKE TRYING TO
TIME THE MARKET.  EDOUARDS FORWARD SPEED HAS BEEN BOUNCING AROUND
FOR THE LAST TWO DAYS.  DURING THE MOST ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD
OVERNIGHT...THE MOTION WAS VERY SLOW...BUT DURING THE DAYTIME IT HAS
MOVED SMARTLY AGAIN...AT ABOUT 6 KT...TOWARD THE COAST.  WHILE THE
TIMING HAS BEEN ADMITTEDLY PROBLEMATIC...IT DOES APPEAR TO BE COMING
ASHORE VERY CLOSE TO WHERE THE LAST TWO DAYS OF OFFICIAL FORECASTS
HAVE BEEN CALLING FOR.

PEAK WINDS ARE RIGHT AROUND MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...
PERHAPS JUST BELOW.  THE HIGHEST FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS FROM THE LAST
RECON AIRCRAFT WERE 38 KT...OR JUST OVER 30 KT WHEN ADJUSTED TO THE
SURFACE.  THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN OBS OF 30
KT AS WELL.  HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN NO RECENT OBSERVATIONS IN THE
VIGOROUS CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

ATTENTION NOW TURNS TO WHAT HAPPENS TO EDOUARD IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO.  EVEN THE UKMET NOW MAINTAINS A TON OF SHEAR OVER EDOUARD AS
IT MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.  A FURTHER DIFFICULTY FOR
EDOUARD IS THE POSSIBLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO.  BEST BET RIGHT NOW IS THAT VERY LITTLE OF EDOUARD
SURVIVES IN THE GULF.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/2100Z 29.6N  81.0W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/0600Z 29.3N  81.7W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     05/1800Z 28.9N  82.3W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     06/0600Z 28.7N  83.3W    25 KTS...OVER WATER
48HR VT     06/1800Z 28.8N  84.5W    25 KTS
72HR VT     07/1800Z 29.5N  86.5W    25 KTS
 
 
NNNN