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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED SEP 04 2002
 
EDOUARD CONTINUES TO HANG ON TO MINIMAL STORM STATUS IN SPITE OF 
STRONG SHEAR.  EVEN THOUGH THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS BEEN 
RISING...NOW UP TO 1008 MB...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING ENOUGH 
CONVECTION TO KEEP THE WINDS UP. INDEED...EVEN THE BANDING STRUCTURE 
HAS IMPROVED.  LATEST RECON REPORTS SHOW 1500 FT WINDS OF 45 KT IN 
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT...WHICH SUPPORTS 35 KT AT THE SURFACE.

MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC...BUT OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS OR SO HAS BEEN 
270/3.  12Z RAOB DATA ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. SUGGEST THAT 
EDOUARD SHOULD STILL BE NUDGED A BIT MORE SOUTHWARD BEFORE LANDFALL. 
WITH STRONG NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW...ANY SIGNIFICANT PERSISTANCE 
OF THE CONVECTION COULD ALSO SLOW THE APPROACH TO THE COAST AND 
INDUCE A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN 
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK.  THE UKMET REMAINS 
AN OUTLIER AS IT CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT EDOUARD WILL TURN AWAY 
WITHOUT REACHING THE COAST.

THERE IS STILL AMPLE SHEAR AND THE ENVIRONMENT...WHILE NOT AS DRY AS 
YESTERDAY...IS STILL NOT ALL THAT FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICALLY.  BOTH 
THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY PRIOR 
TO LANDFALL.  WITH THE DELAYED FORECAST LANDFALL UNTIL AFTER ANOTHER 
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CYCLE...DECAY TO DEPRESSION STRENGTH NO LONGER 
SEEMS LIKELY...HENCE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/1500Z 29.9N  80.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     05/0000Z 29.7N  80.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     05/1200Z 29.4N  81.1W    35 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     06/0000Z 29.0N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     06/1200Z 28.8N  83.2W    30 KTS...OVER WATER
72HR VT     07/1200Z 29.0N  85.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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