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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002
 
IN SPITE OF CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR...EDOUARD HAS BEEN MAINTAINING 
VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE 
UNIT RECON AIRCRAFT FLYING AT 1000 FT ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS OF 55 
TO 60 KT.  THEY ALSO FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF UP TO 71 KT.  THE 
MINIMUM PRESSURE WAS DOWN TO 1002 BUT HAS SINCE INCHED UP.  BASED ON 
THE RECON REPORTS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE ADVISORY MOTION IS NOMINALLY STATIONARY...BUT THE MOST RECENT 
FIX WAS SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND THE LAST FEW VISIBLE 
IMAGES SUGGEST THAT EDOUARD IS BEGINNING TO MOVE.  WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS RIDGING ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES THAT IS EXPECTED 
TO TAKE THE CYCLONE GENERALLY TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS HOW QUICKLY EDOUARD WILL 
GET TO THE COAST.  THE 06Z AVN SEEMED TO HAVE TROUBLE HANGING ON TO 
THE VORTEX AND HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED.  LANDFALL TIMINGS VARY FROM 
ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH THE GFDL TO 72 WITH THE UKMET.  RIGHT NOW THE 
OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A LANDFALL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...BUT THIS 
MIGHT HAVE TO BE MOVED UP IF A DEFINITIVE MOTION TREND IS CONFIRMED.

THE STRONG WINDS FOUND BY THE RECON AIRCRAFT THIS MORNING WERE A 
SURPRISE.  HOWEVER...THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN THINNING OUT OVER THE 
LAST FEW HOURS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR BEING INGESTED 
INTO THE CIRCULATION.  THEREFORE...THE SHORT TERM INTENSITY THINKING 
IS THAT THE CONVECTIVE VIGOR...AND THE WINDS...WILL DECREASE.  
LONGER-TERM...THE INTENSITY DEPENDS ON HOW THE SHEAR PATTERN EVOLVES 
OVER EDOUARD.  THERE IS DIVERSITY IN THE GUIDANCE ON THIS 
SCORE...WITH THE ETA SHOWING 50 KT NORTHWESTERLIES OVER THE CYCLONE 
IN 36 HOURS...WHILE THE UKMET SHOWS ONLY ABOUT 20 KT.  THE AVN IS IN 
BETWEEN.  SO THE POSSIBILITY CERTAINLY IS THERE FOR EDOUARD TO 
MAINTAIN ITSELF OR STRENGTHEN A LITTLE BIT PRIOR TO LANDFALL. 
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/1500Z 30.3N  78.6W    55 KTS
12HR VT     04/0000Z 30.2N  78.7W    50 KTS
24HR VT     04/1200Z 30.0N  79.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     05/0000Z 29.8N  80.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     05/1200Z 29.2N  81.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     06/1200Z 29.0N  82.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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