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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002

EDOUARD IS SHOWING THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER DEPLOYED A DROPSONDE AT THE 850 MB CENTER...ONLY
TO FIND WINDS 180 DEG 30 KT AT THE SURFACE.  THIS INDICATES THAT
THE WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TILTED THE VORTEX EASTWARD WITH HEIGHT.
DESPITE THE SHEAR...THE DROPSONDE DATA INDICATES THE CENTRAL 
PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR 1003 MB.  THUS...THE MAXIMUM WINDS WILL
REMAIN 35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA.
 
EDOUARD MAY HAVE NUDGED JUST A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO CALL THE MOTION ANYTHING
OTHER THAN STATIONARY.  WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SERIES
OF WESTERLY TROUGHS PASSING TO THE NORTH OF EDOUARD...NONE OF
THEM ARE REACHING FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO PICK UP THE STORM FROM ITS
POSITION IN A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE TROUGHS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC...
WITH HEIGHTS AND PRESSURES GRADUALLY RISING OVER THE EASTERN
U. S. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS
RESPONDING TO THIS...WITH MOST MODELS CONVERGING ON A SLOW
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST GOES WITH THIS SCENARIO...BRINGING THE CENTER
INLAND IN 48-72 HR.  THE BIGGEST CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
IS TO ELIMINATE THE SMALL NORTHWARD TURN THAT WAS FORECAST BEFORE
THE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGAN.
 
THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT IS INCREASINGLY HOSTILE.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR OVERSPREADING THE 
CENTER...WHILE RAWINSONDES FROM JACKSONVILLE INDICATE 30-40 KT
200 MB FLOW BLOWING ACROSS THE CENTER.  LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS LIKELY TO INCREASE...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF WINDS REACHING 50-60 KT BY 36-48 HR.  IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THOUGH THAT THE UKMET...WHICH LAST NIGHT WAS ONE OF THE
MODELS  FORECASTING STRONG FLOW...IS NOW FORECASTING MUCH WEAKER
FLOW OF A STRENGTH THAT WOULD PROBABLY LET EDOUARD SURVIVE.  THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS MODIFIED TO SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES FLORIDA.  HOWEVER...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT
CHANCE THAT EDOUARD COULD WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION BEFORE REACHING
FLORIDA.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 30.3N  78.6W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 30.3N  78.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z 30.2N  79.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     04/1800Z 30.1N  79.6W    35 KTS
48HR VT     05/0600Z 29.7N  80.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     06/0600Z 29.0N  82.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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