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TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 02 2002
 
NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRUCTURE OF EDOUARD.  
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE DEEP 
CONVECTION DUE TO SOLID WESTERLY SHEAR.  AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE 
REPORTED 850 MB WINDS OF 45 KT.  THESE DATA...ALONG WITH DROPSONDE 
AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS REMAIN 35 KT.

EDOUARD HAS BEEN MOVING EASTWARD TODAY...PERHAPS PARTLY DUE TO 
CONVECTIVE FORCING AS APPEARED TO OCCUR IN A SOMEWHAT SIMILAR 
PATTERN WITH CRISTOBAL.  A MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PASSING 
THE LONGITUDE OF THE CYCLONE.  BUILDING HEIGHTS BEHIND THE TROUGH 
ARE EXPECTED TO TURN EDOUARD BACK TO THE WEST.  WHAT IS LESS CERTAIN 
IS WHETHER IT WILL LOOP NORTHWARD...CLOSER THE THE SC/GA COAST...OR 
SOUTHWARD...ENHANCING THE THREAT TO CENTRAL FLORIDA.  THE SOUTHERLY 
ROUTE IS MORE LIKELY IF THE CENTER CAN REMAIN COUPLED WITH THE 
CONVECTION...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM IS MORE LIKELY TO TAKE THE 
NORTHERN ROUTE.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL FAVORS THE 
NORTHERN OPTION.

GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT SHEAR WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY 
INTENSIFICATION...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS LESS SO IF THE CYCLONE TAKES A 
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK.  THE GFDL FORECAST OF A HURRICANE WITHIN 12 
HOURS IS IMPOSSIBLE TO ACCEPT.  GIVEN THE SHEAR...EVEN THE SHIPS 
FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS EDOUARD TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH IN 
72 HOURS...SEEMS A BIT HIGH.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/2100Z 30.5N  78.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/0600Z 30.5N  78.7W    40 KTS
24HR VT     03/1800Z 30.9N  78.9W    40 KTS
36HR VT     04/0600Z 31.0N  79.4W    45 KTS
48HR VT     04/1800Z 30.7N  80.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     05/1800Z 30.0N  81.5W    45 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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